Creating an investment game plan is a decisive part of building a permanent wealth. Without one, you will likely accumulate much less over your life. Now that S&P 500 was 20 % corrected in 2025, we formally entered another market. Whether this recession continues, and for how long is anyone guessing.
One reason I installed my message How will I invest $ 250,000 in cash today It is because I get this question constantly. The amount should not be $ 250,000 cash, but any amount of money. It is a road map in the actual time and a way to stay consistent with thought and work, especially during troubled times.
After the gains of 20 %+ in S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, I didn’t want to restore a lot of 2021 gains as I did in 2022. Let’s reconsider the investment game plan and see where you had improved and what I adapt now after the stock market fell.
This is not an investment advice for you, because we are in different financial positions. It is a look at how to think about managing my own money during the bear market. Please make your investment decisions suitable for your goals.
A review of my investment game plan in the bear market
For background, I have been invested since 1996 and lived through both the 1997 Asian financial crisis, 2000 Dot-Com Bust and the 2008 global financial crisis-which invested more than $ 1.5 million. During the 2008 collapse, 35 % – 40 % of the net value, took a decade, all within six months. I never want to pass this experience again, especially after I have a family to support it.
Our target 1 in the bear market: DUPS, which means The unemployed father is doubleS, unlike Dinks or Henries. My wife and I share the goal of not having to work for anyone again. We cannot return in our time. At the present time, what we appreciate is that time and energy with our children (ages 8 and 5) before they leave the house at the age of 18.
We do not want to go back home after a long day of work. Instead of the need to escape work and the family on weekends, we want to spend the entire weekend together. During school rest periods, we aim to travel as a family for a longer period of time. As older fathers, we do not already have a lot of energy as the younger parent. Back to work would completely drain our batteries.
As moderate investors, this is our investment games plan to maintain our freedom using investments and negative income that we have already created. Looking at my wife and I have no fixed salaries, our main goal is to survive in the bear market until better times return. We cannot lose more than 40 % of our net wealth at this stage of our lives.
1) Treasury bonds (30 % of cash holdings -> to 20 %)
With the treasury yield to about 4.25 % of 5 %, bonds are less attractive than before at 5 %. However, earning ~ 4 % of the risk -free loses 20 %+ in the stock market. So if you look down in the treasury bonds before, then it is time to reconsider. The goal is not to generate great returns – it protects you from the risks of the downside in more volatile origins.
If you are in the high -level federal income chip, cabinet bonds provide an additional boost because the acquired interest is free of tax. In the bear market, I always want to get at least six months living expenses. Criticism not only provides psychological comfort, but also enables you to invest in value opportunities.
Looking at the correction of the last stock market, I reduce the customization of this bond deployment from 30 % to 20 %.
2) Arrows (25 % of cash holdings -> up to 35 %)
I was cautious about entering 2025, when S&P 500 has been about 22x – higher than the historical average of 18x. After two wonderful years, some seemed to mean that the bounce is inevitable.
At that time, I wrote: “Given the expensive assessments, I only buy from 1000 to $ 5,000 after each decrease by 0.5 % – 1 %. S&P 500 can return to 5000 if the assessments mean return.” She held this plan and started buying after a 3 % decline … but now the index has decreased, with a decrease of S&P 500 to low -4,850 of the expected floor of 5500.
Unfortunately, I was no Care or patient enough. I was buying the decline and the market continues to dip. However, I was buying a 26 -year decrease, and in the long run, I succeeded. It is in the short term when he always feels the worst. This last correction confirms the reason that I am the best revenue of firm real estate on stock fluctuations.
In light of the decline, I upgrade stock customization from 25 % to 35 %. There seems to be a decent possibility, the S&P 500 can correct to 4500, or two doubles less than average P/E in the long term of 18 years. Why do you pay the average multiple evaluation when the government intentionally sacrifices the stock market for lower possible prices?
3) Investment capital (20 % of cash holdings → Increase to 25 %)
Investing in investment capital has been a good step so far. I wanted to be exposed to private artificial intelligence companies because I expect a difficult future for our children. I also appreciate the ability to invest in companies that I think works well and prepare to raise the next financing round with a higher evaluation. This type of almost pleasure and transparency is the reason why I am a fan of open adventure boxes.
Openai recently closed a A new financing round worth $ 40 billionThe company’s evaluation of $ 300 billion – is subject to its evaluation less than 10 months ago. This type of momentum heralds good for other special artificial intelligence companies, which may also provoke higher assessments, although there is nothing guaranteed.
It was too late, I should have allocated only more than 20 % method for adventure capital. However, with public markets in turmoil, we see public subscription delays (for example, klarana) and assessment pressure. As a result, adventure investors must stay disciplined and avoid excessive payment.
Below is my country To collect donations, investment dashboard in investment capital. The returns were fixed throughout the year, making me wish I had a much larger customization. But I am currently restricted to liquidity and I believe in maintaining diversification. Once I sell a rented property, I plan to increase my allocations.
Currently, I upgrade the customization of the investment capital to 25 % of 20 %. probably Many more fluctuations below the surface. But mentally, it is good not to see it. We hope that there are better reviews in the markets given that Fort has come out of public markets.
4) Real estate (24.9 % of cash holdings)
2025 is formed to be the time of real estate to shine and may outperform the shares with a wide margin. I have been waiting for this moment since 2022, after 11 times the federal reserve rates in record time. Now, in every case of uncertainty and chaos, expectations have returned From three to five Price discounts in 2025, from zero to two discounts at the beginning of the year.
Pent -up demand, low mortgage rates (which are now 6.5 %), the head of capital from funny money shares and to concrete assets puts the way for continued strength in many real estate markets. However, the markets that have flourished more and have a wide space to build new supplies – such as Austin, Dallas, Punta Jorda, and Cape Coral – show signs of weakness.
The gap between the S&P 500 index and home prices for one family in the United States is large and is likely to be unnecessary. Real estate prices must reach the S&P 500 correction. If the government will intentionally disrupt the stock market, it must do everything in its power to support the real estate market, as 66 % of Americans have homes.
Merial integration and strong acquisitions in real estate preaches well
Here’s a major news: Rocket Mortgage (Rocket Mortgage owner, who was previously working in loans), has just agreed to obtain a giant for the mortgage service, Mr. Cooper, for $ 9.4 billion. This follows their own acquisition of $ 1.75 billion. You do not spend this type of money unless you are optimistic about real estate recovery and mortgage.
I am 24.9 % comfortable for real estate for real estate because I have already been exposed greatly – the 50 % of the net wealthy is related to real estate. Earlier this year, I spoke with Ben Miller, CEO of fundraising, and we agreed to that Residential commercial real estate It is one of the most attractive asset classes today due to its relatively low assessments.
When facing the decision to invest in the S&P 500 trading with 22x front profits or in residential commercial real estate that trades with 20-30 % of the highest levels of March 2022, I chose the latter. In moderate recession, real estate should be greatly outperforming the stocks.
5) Financial education (0.1 % of cash holdings)
Since I allocated 0 % for debt education because most of us re -fined our real estate mortgages and (we hope) do not carry the credit cards balances, the final category to reduce my allocation to 100 % is financial education.
I believe a firm belief that financial education is the key to building a permanent wealth. For this reason, I specialized in the economy in William and Mary, I got a master’s business administration from Berkeley, I started Financial samuraiAnd he continued to write books. Founding understanding of the allocation of assets, risks and return, tax strategy, and various ways to develop wealth in an incredibly valuable value.
Unfortunately, most people do not take enough time to read articles – not to mention books – about personal finance anymore. I have seen this deficiency in accurate reading with the last post on April Fools and subsequent comments! As a result, they often get prisons during the bear markets.
I have seen this course of financial destruction over and over since I started working in funding in 1999. People who receive their allocation of assets or go to the margin before the great collapse. Others sell panic near the bottom and keep cash for a long time unreasonably. Once you are late during the recession, it becomes very difficult to catch up with your peers.
Only 0.1 % spending from $ 250,000 – $ 250 – on books such as Buy this, not that or Millionaire landmarks It is hardly mentioned in the large plan. But the possible return on this investment can be thousands of percent.
Unfortunately, it is often a significant financial loss for people to finally take action. This was the case for me during the global financial crisis 2008-2009, which eventually led me to launch Financial samurai.
Please develop your investment game plan
If you do not develop an investment game plan, you will likely accumulate a much lower wealth than your peers who do it. Worse, you may lose a large amount of clear value due to incapable and customized exposure.
Set your financial goals, then create a plan to get there. If you are not sure where to start, think about working with a financial advisor only or a financial professional. Or, if you have the means and want more practical attention, wealth manager may be an option. Just be ready to pay because they are paid fees for a percentage of assets.
For many people wandering when it comes to their personal financing. Within 10 years, those who often do where all their money went.
Readers, how do you publish your money in this bear market? Do you control your investment strategy? How low is that the market will go, and why? Are you financially ready for contraction 1-2 years?
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